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March 2008 Archives

March 6, 2008

Play ball!

Let's quickly focus on the Electoral College math. It takes 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes to become president. In the last four elections, the GOP won all four elections in 16 states for a total of 135 Electoral College votes. The Democrats won all four times in 19 states (including D.C.), tying up a monster 248 ECVs. Darn scary if you are on the GOP train.

The Democrats must capture only 22 ECVs from the remaining 16 in-play states to win the presidential brass ring. From the 16 in-play states (states that split ECVs over the last four elections), the ones that count the most are Florida (27 ECVs), Ohio (20), Georgia (15), Tennessee (11), Missouri (11), and Arizona (10). If recent presidential election math runs true to course during the 2008 election and the GOP and the Democrats snare the normal 135 and 248 ECVs, respectively, from the in-the-bag states, the Democrats need only Florida to move into the White House. The Democrats last won Florida in 1996. But even if they lose Florida, the Democrats could take the White House by instead grabbing Ohio and any one of the other states on my short list above. Some nasty math for the GOP.

March 12, 2008

Stricter than Swiss Law

The economic picture in Singapore offers the patient investor much promise. Singapore is transforming itself into a world-class knowledge-based economy. Biomedical research and private banking are at the forefront of the country's march up the value chain. Output of drugs and medical devices is up fourfold since 2000. Over the past two years, medical travelers are up 28% to 410,000. And more than 100 foreign drug makers and biomedical companies have set up factories in Singapore. These firms are likely attracted to the city-state's strict patent enforcement, highly educated workforce, and friendly business climate.

On the financial services side, Singapore is fast becoming Asia's offshore financial center. Assets under management in the country's private banking industry are growing at rates of up to 30%. In a recent Barron's article, Justin Ong, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, notes that China is creating 30,000 new millionaires every year, with India, Indonesia, and Taiwan not far behind. This newly minted group of millionaires is attracted to Singapore's low rate of corruption, rigorous legal system, and secrecy laws that are now considered stricter than even Swiss laws.

March 20, 2008

A Bidding War Possible

Xstrata (LONDON: XTA.L) recently confirmed that it is in talks to be acquired by Brazilian iron ore giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) for as much as $100 billion. A combination of the two firms would create the world's largest thermal coal exporter, the largest iron-ore producer, and a leading copper, zinc, and nickel producer. With the field of big mining companies narrowing sharply, a bidding war for Xstrata is possible.

March 25, 2008

Poised to Benefit

According to a 2005 infrastructure report by the American Society of Civil Engineers, the U.S. power transmission system is in urgent need of modernization. Growth in electricity demand and investment in new power plants has not been matched by investment in new transmission facilities. Over the coming decade, investment in transmission assets is expected to average $3 billion to $4 billion per year, up from $286 million as recently as 2003. Regulated utilities are poised to benefit from higher capital investment in transmission assets. Utilities earn return on invested capital that is set and guaranteed by state public utility commissions. Higher capital investment results in greater guaranteed income for utilities.

About March 2008

This page contains all entries posted to Dick Young's Intelligence Report in March 2008. They are listed from oldest to newest.

February 2008 is the previous archive.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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