U.S. consumers are now getting the message. The housing slump, along with the sub-prime write-off mess, has nowhere near run its course. My charts on Young Research's Moving the Goods Index and the Dow Jones Transports vs. the Dow Jones Industrials indicate a recession-flashing breakdown.

Manufacturing employment holds the key. If shop floors are busy, recession can be fended off. As an indicator of a still-cooking environment, I'd like to see the indicator for manufacturing hours worked per week hold above 40.7 hours. Last month, it fell by two ticks, to 41.1 from 41.3 hours. A decline below 40.7 hours to, say, 40.1 hours will usher in a broad-based U.S. recession.