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September 2007 Archives

September 4, 2007

The Super Bid

After putting up strong resistance to a generous $28 billion offer from Alcoa (NYSE: AA), Alcan (NYSE: AL) found a more palatable suitor in Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP). Rio Tinto's $38 billion bid represents a premium of 35% to the Alcoa bid and a 66% premium to the price of Alcan shares before the Alcoa offer. Rio's premium bid is unlikely to be topped. If the deal goes through, the new company would be named Rio Tinto Alcan. Rio would become the world's largest mining company, controlling 11% of the world's aluminum supply and 14% of global bauxite reserves.

September 13, 2007

A Shift to Healthier Drinks

Coca-Cola's (KO) old-line board has finally woken up to the realities of the U.S. carbonated soft drink business. American beverage preferences are shifting toward non-carbonated healthier alternatives. PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) long ago moved heavily into non-carbonated drinks. Coke stubbornly resisted a shift to non-carbonated alternatives and is now playing catch-up to Pepsi's market leading position. Coke's recent acquisition of Glaceau, maker of VitaminWater, is a step toward improving results. A reinvigorated U.S. business and strong growth internationally are driving Coke shares higher.

September 19, 2007

Go Private

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG), my favorite company, reported big jumps in second-quarter revenue and net income. Hog shipped 3,576 more units YTD to dealers worldwide than in the same half of 2006. But wait. Worldwide, Harley dealers actually sold 1.27% fewer Hogs YTD than last year. CEO Jim Ziemer, looking to put the best face forward, chose to round the number down to 1.2% in his press release. Remember J.Z., today's Hog is tomorrow's bacon. Moreover, domestic dealers sold 8,759, or 5.69%, fewer Hogs YTD than in 2006. Retail sales YTD were up sharply in Canada and Europe due to, in my opinion, the weak U.S. dollar.

Harley continues pandering to Wall Street while compromising H-D dealers with excessive inventories and Hog customers with falling used-bike prices and backed-up, rushed, and often surly service. I would like to see Hog put a lid on production and be more helpful to its dealers and loyal customers. And I wouldn't mind a return to private market status.

September 28, 2007

GE -- World-Class

General Electric's (GE) infrastructure business and exposure to emerging markets is leading a resurgence in the company's shares. GE's second-quarter financial report showed revenue growth of 12%, driven by a 23% increase in infrastructure revenue. A 12% revenue growth rate for a behemoth like GE is remarkable. New capacity in emerging markets and a replacement and upgrade cycle in developed countries is driving demand for GE's infrastructure products and services. GE shares offer exposure to booming emerging markets without all of the political, economic, and corruption risk associated with a direct investment in these markets.

About September 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Dick Young's Intelligence Report in September 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

August 2007 is the previous archive.

October 2007 is the next archive.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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